short1–3 months
EVIDENCE LEANS BULLISH
Composite+0.37
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.40 · 8 active
MARKET DOCKET · DAILY CLOSE
Three horizons. Same witnesses. Different relevance. No point predictions.
6 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.40 · 8 active
6 bullish · 5 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.28 · 12 active
1 bullish · 2 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.18 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
SPLIT JURY. 6 witnesses support growth, 1 argue for caution, and 5 are not taking a side. The dispersion is 0.28—that disagreement matters.
Point-in-time testimony through market breaks and bull runs.
Every reading has a source. Every lean has a rule. Credibility now comes from reproducible historical backtests—with sample size, base rate, and worst miss on the record.
| Witness | Reading | Last 60 observations | Testimony | Credibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curveleading | 0.3%FRED · Jul 10, 2026 | No clear lean | 57/100backtested | |
| Sahm rulecoincident | 0.1%FRED · Jun 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 51/100backtested | |
| Jobless claimsleading | 218,750FRED · Jul 4, 2026 | Favors growth | 48/100backtested | |
| Credit stressleading | 2.7%FRED · Jul 9, 2026 | Favors growth | 50/100backtested | |
| VIXsentiment | 15.8FRED · Jul 9, 2026 | Favors growth | 50/100backtested | |
| Financial conditionscoincident | -0.5FRED · Jul 3, 2026 | Favors growth | 55/100backtested | |
| Core inflationtrailing | 2.8%FRED · May 1, 2026 | No clear lean | 51/100backtested | |
| Money supplyleading | 5.6%FRED · May 1, 2026 | Favors growth | 58/100backtested | |
| Market trendcoincident | 13.7%FRED · Jul 10, 2026 | Favors growth | 48/100backtested | |
| Unemploymenttrailing | 0.1FRED · Jun 1, 2026 | No clear lean | 49/100backtested | |
| Building permitsleading | -0.4%FRED · May 1, 2026 | No clear lean | 54/100backtested | |
| Consumer sentimentsentiment | 44.8FRED · May 1, 2026 | Favors caution | 51/100backtested | |
| Oil shockleading | 1.2%FRED · Jul 6, 2026 | No clear lean | 61/100backtested |
Each witness now shows its worst historical call. Daily composite snapshots are next, so Verdict itself can be judged by the same standard as the witnesses.
See what gets measuredVerdict flips become videos. Videos cross-examine the witnesses. The public record stays here at cashontrial.com.