short1–3 months
EVIDENCE LEANS BEARISH
Composite-0.75
0 bullish · 0 neutral · 3 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.31 · 3 active
BULL RUN · 2009-03-09
The market low that opened the long post-financial-crisis bull run.
0 bullish · 0 neutral · 3 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.31 · 3 active
1 bullish · 2 neutral · 4 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.65 · 7 active
0 bullish · 2 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.55 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
Revision-sensitive readings use the ALFRED vintage published by 2009-03-09. Market-price series without vintages use dated FRED history clipped at the case date. Later observations stay out; missing archives stay visibly unavailable.
These readings and signals are frozen to the historical publication record. Current backtested credibility weights are shown separately from the dated testimony.
| Witness | Reading | Last 60 observations | Testimony | Credibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curveleading | 1.9%DATED FRED · Mar 9, 2009 | Favors growth | 57/100backtested | |
| Sahm rulecoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 51/100backtested |
| Jobless claimsleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 48/100backtested |
| Credit stressleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 50/100backtested |
| VIXsentiment | 49.7DATED FRED · Mar 9, 2009 | Favors caution | 50/100backtested | |
| Financial conditionscoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 55/100backtested |
| Core inflationtrailing | 1.7%ALFRED VINTAGE · Jan 1, 2009 | No clear lean | 51/100backtested | |
| Money supplyleading | 10.5%ALFRED VINTAGE · Jan 1, 2009 | No clear lean | 58/100backtested | |
| Market trendcoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 47/100backtested |
| Unemploymenttrailing | 3.3ALFRED VINTAGE · Feb 1, 2009 | Favors caution | 49/100backtested | |
| Building permitsleading | -49.5%ALFRED VINTAGE · Jan 1, 2009 | Favors caution | 54/100backtested | |
| Consumer sentimentsentiment | 56.3ALFRED VINTAGE · Feb 1, 2009 | Favors caution | 47/100backtested | |
| Oil shockleading | -55.3%DATED FRED · Mar 9, 2009 | Favors caution | 60/100backtested |
The S&P price was 52.2% higher one year later. This outcome is not part of the historical verdict; it is the receipt used to judge it.