WITNESS STAND · coincident

Chicago Fed financial conditions

Positive readings mean money and credit are tighter than usual across the financial system.

Current reading-0.5As of Jul 3, 2026

Testimony

Financial conditions are looser than their long-run average.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.65 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

short · 3m56/100

Hit rate: 60.1%
Base rate: 72.1%
Sample: 454
Avg. edge: +0.2%

Perjury record: On Aug 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +27.5% over the next 3 months.

Feb 1, 1971–Mar 1, 2026 · current-vintage FRED history

medium · 12m55/100

Hit rate: 59.6%
Base rate: 79.4%
Sample: 446
Avg. edge: +0.5%

Perjury record: On Jul 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +60.2% over the next 12 months.

Feb 1, 1971–Feb 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series NFCI. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

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