Testimony
The Sahm trigger is not active.
The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.35 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.
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WITNESS STAND · coincident
Sahm recession rule
A fast rise in unemployment is one of the clearest signs that a downturn may already be underway.
Current reading0.1%As of Jun 1, 2026
CREDIBILITY EXPLORER
The witness’s public track record
Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.
short · 3m52/100
- Hit rate
- 58.1%
- Base rate
- 71.4%
- Sample
- 669
- Avg. edge
- -0.2%
Perjury record: On Aug 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +27.5% over the next 3 months.
Dec 1, 1959–Jan 1, 2026 · current-vintage FRED historymedium · 12m51/100
- Hit rate
- 59.9%
- Base rate
- 78.3%
- Sample
- 666
- Avg. edge
- -1.4%
Perjury record: On Jul 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +60.2% over the next 12 months.
Dec 1, 1959–Jan 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED historySource receipt
Federal Reserve Economic Data series SAHMREALTIME. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.
Open the source at FREDAs tried on Cash on Trial
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