WITNESS STAND · trailing

Unemployment rate change

A meaningful rise in unemployment usually matters more than the level itself.

Current reading-0.1As of Jun 1, 2026

Testimony

The annual unemployment change is not flashing a broad break.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.40 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

medium · 12m49/100

Hit rate: 59.3%
Base rate: 78.7%
Sample: 804
Avg. edge: -2.5%

Perjury record: On Jul 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +60.2% over the next 12 months.

Jan 1, 1951–May 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series UNRATE. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

Case-file videos will attach to this witness as each claim is tested on the channel. Until then, the source and scoring rule remain fully visible here.

Watch Cash on Trial