Testimony
Households remain unusually downbeat.
The engine converts this reading to a signal of -0.70 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.
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WITNESS STAND · sentiment
University of Michigan sentiment
Households spend differently when confidence collapses, though extreme gloom can arrive near a bottom.
Current reading44.8As of May 1, 2026
CREDIBILITY EXPLORER
The witness’s public track record
Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.
short · 3m49/100
- Hit rate
- 67.4%
- Base rate
- 71.7%
- Sample
- 534
- Avg. edge
- -0.7%
Perjury record: On Dec 1, 1974, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +26.4% over the next 3 months.
Nov 1, 1952–Mar 1, 2026 · current-vintage FRED historymedium · 12m47/100
- Hit rate
- 71.1%
- Base rate
- 78.3%
- Sample
- 526
- Avg. edge
- -2.1%
Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2009, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +55.8% over the next 12 months.
Nov 1, 1952–May 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED historySource receipt
Federal Reserve Economic Data series UMCSENT. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.
Open the source at FREDAs tried on Cash on Trial
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