Testimony
Near-term market fear is contained.
The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.45 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.
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WITNESS STAND · sentiment
CBOE volatility index
The options market's fear gauge is useful for near-term stress, but panic can also mark exhaustion.
Current reading15.8As of Jul 9, 2026
CREDIBILITY EXPLORER
The witness’s public track record
Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.
short · 3m53/100
- Hit rate
- 60%
- Base rate
- 75%
- Sample
- 315
- Avg. edge
- -0.6%
Perjury record: On Mar 1, 2009, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +23.2% over the next 3 months.
Feb 1, 1990–Jan 1, 2026 · current-vintage FRED historySource receipt
Federal Reserve Economic Data series VIXCLS. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.
Open the source at FREDAs tried on Cash on Trial
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