WITNESS STAND · trailing

Core consumer prices

Sticky inflation can keep interest rates restrictive even after growth starts cooling.

Current reading3%As of May 1, 2026

Testimony

Core inflation is closer to a range policy can live with.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.25 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

medium · 12m51/100

Hit rate: 22.6%
Base rate: 78.5%
Sample: 376
Avg. edge: -0.4%

Perjury record: On Jul 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +60.2% over the next 12 months.

Aug 1, 1966–Feb 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED history

long · 60m44/100

Hit rate: 2.7%
Base rate: 90.1%
Sample: 332
Avg. edge: -10.7%

Perjury record: On Aug 1, 1982, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +267.2% over the next 60 months.

Aug 1, 1966–Jun 1, 2021 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series CPILFESL. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

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