WITNESS STAND · leading

High-yield credit spread

When risky borrowers pay much more than the government, credit markets are pricing more trouble.

Current reading3.2%As of Oct 15, 2026

Testimony

Credit spreads are not pricing broad distress.

The engine converts this reading to a signal of +0.55 on a scale from −2 to +2. Relevance masks decide which horizons hear this witness; credibility decides how much weight the testimony receives.

CREDIBILITY EXPLORER

The witness’s public track record

Signals use the latest published FRED history; revised economic series may retain revision bias. Market outcomes use the project Shiller monthly S&P series with dividend reinvestment when available.

short · 3m49/100

Hit rate: 80%
Base rate: 86.2%
Sample: 25
Avg. edge: -1.5%

Perjury record: On Nov 1, 2023, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +12.4% over the next 3 months.

Nov 1, 2023–Mar 1, 2026 · current-vintage FRED history

medium · 12m50/100

Hit rate: 93.8%
Base rate: 100%
Sample: 16
Avg. edge: -3.9%

Perjury record: On Nov 1, 2023, it leaned toward caution; the S&P returned +33% over the next 12 months.

Nov 1, 2023–Jun 1, 2025 · current-vintage FRED history

Source receipt

Federal Reserve Economic Data series BAMLH0A0HYM2. Retrieved server-side and cached for six hours. No reading is invented when the source fails.

Open the source at FRED

As tried on Cash on Trial

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