short1–3 months
SPLIT JURY
Composite-0.25
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.00 · 1 active
STRESS TEST · 2008-09-12
The final market day before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.
0 bullish · 1 neutral · 0 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.00 · 1 active
1 bullish · 2 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.80 · 5 active
1 bullish · 1 neutral · 1 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.76 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
Revision-sensitive readings use the ALFRED vintage published by 2008-09-12. Market-price series without vintages use dated FRED history clipped at the case date. Later observations stay out; missing archives stay visibly unavailable.
These readings and signals are frozen to the historical publication record. Current backtested credibility weights are shown separately from the dated testimony.
| Witness | Reading | Last 60 observations | Testimony | Credibility |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yield curveleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 57/100backtested |
| Sahm rulecoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 51/100backtested |
| Jobless claimsleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 48/100backtested |
| Credit stressleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 50/100backtested |
| VIXsentiment | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 50/100backtested |
| Financial conditionscoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 55/100backtested |
| Core inflationtrailing | 2.5%ALFRED VINTAGE · Jul 1, 2008 | No clear lean | 51/100backtested | |
| Money supplyleading | 5.4%ALFRED VINTAGE · Aug 1, 2008 | Favors growth | 58/100backtested | |
| Market trendcoincident | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 47/100backtested |
| Unemploymenttrailing | 1.4ALFRED VINTAGE · Aug 1, 2008 | Favors caution | 49/100backtested | |
| Building permitsleading | -32.4%ALFRED VINTAGE · Jul 1, 2008 | Favors caution | 54/100backtested | |
| Consumer sentimentsentiment | 63ALFRED VINTAGE · Aug 1, 2008 | No clear lean | 47/100backtested | |
| Oil shockleading | —WITNESS UNAVAILABLE | No testimony | Unavailable | 60/100backtested |
The S&P price was 14.2% lower one year later. This outcome is not part of the historical verdict; it is the receipt used to judge it.