short1–3 months
SPLIT JURY
Composite-0.17
0 bullish · 2 neutral · 3 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.38 · 5 active
BULL RUN · 2023-01-03
The first trading session of 2023, before an AI-led advance broadened the bull case.
0 bullish · 2 neutral · 3 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.38 · 5 active
1 bullish · 2 neutral · 5 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.80 · 8 active
1 bullish · 0 neutral · 2 bearish
Uncertainty ±0.79 · 3 active
The bar this evidence must beat: stocks were higher 12 months later in roughly 64% of all months since 1871. A bullish verdict is not a promise.
Revision-sensitive readings use the ALFRED vintage published by 2023-01-03. Market-price series without vintages use dated FRED history clipped at the case date. Later observations stay out; missing archives stay visibly unavailable.
These readings and signals are frozen to the historical publication record. Current backtested credibility weights are shown separately from the dated testimony.
The S&P price was 21.3% higher one year later. This outcome is not part of the historical verdict; it is the receipt used to judge it.